We All Got Fooled Again

Meet the new Saints, same as the old Saints.

It's oooonly deeeefense wasteland.

I could go on and on. But what's the point. Saints fans have been singing this tune for three consecutive 7-9 seasons. Based on Monday's performance against the Vikings, 7-9 now looks more like glory days.

Boy how preseason doeth fool the faithful soul. The Saints defense went on a sack feeding frenzy. Seventeen! Lead the league. In the preseason. Saints DBs were like flypaper to opposing WRs, in the preseason. Other teams barely scored against the Saints D. In. The. Preseason.

I have to admit. I was fooled. I knew damn well it was only preseason. Preseason never says anything about a team. But there I was. Convincing myself this one was different. After all, the defense had been just as bad in the preseason as regular season during those 7-9 years. So when this preseason defense was outstanding, I figured Saints fans were set.

Like a song stuck on an old record player, Saints fans heard the same scratchy beat over and over and over.

Minnesota 3 plays TD. Minn 5 plays TD. Saints burn timeouts. Defense fails. Minnesota 95 yards, TD. Game over.

It's not like the Saints made them work for it. Time after time like that broken record WRs were running free. Wide open. Not a fluer de lis in sight. A makeshift OL was protecting QB Sam Bradford for an eternity at a time. A rookie running back was breaking a Vikings all-time franchise record.

I like to think I see things a little before others. Go out on a limb a little. Risk looking foolish.

So here I go again

The Sean Payton/ Drew Brees era is officially over. Some will think I'm late to this party but might I guide you to my blog back in 2015. The beginning of the end of SP/DB era.

Though I'm kindof an analysts, I'm actually more of a fan first. As a fan I sometimes lead with my heart. Have to force myself to not see things as I wish they are but see them as they really are. I usually win this self-conflict. I didn't this preseason.

But now, like the little boy in that movie, I see a dead football team. They don know they're dead. They run around, practice and show up for games as if they aren't.  But they are so Bruce Willis.

I feel like the wife in that movie. Keep holding on. Waiting for the Saints to give me some sign. Something I can hold onto. Some sign of life. But nothing. Just subtle reminders of an offense that once was. An OLine that protected its QB. A defense that for a fleeting moment, created turnovers and remember-me shots. But those memories are faded and out of focus as death becomes clearer.

I know its just the first game. I told myself that too. Then I looked at the schedule. New England, at Carolina, Miami in England, a bye then home for Detroit and in Green Bay. That's 1-5 BEFORE Atlanta and a much improved Tampa twice.

"But Miami, the Jets, Rams and Bills are all winnable."

Yeah, that's what their fans are saying about the Saints.

Face it. folks. After this off-season. All the focus on getting a fast start. All the preparation in mini-camps, OTAs, training camp and pre-season. Monday night happened.

It's over.

Like the wife in that movie, we'll one day look at old videos with fondness of a great team as the ring drops, rolls on the floor and stops at the end of this season.

Saints Camp '17

Things I'm watching:

1. Defensive Tackle

Nick Fairly will he missed. Big time. There isn't a more talented player on the DL. Sheldon Rankins is close. He looked good when he came back from injury last season. But we'll see if he benefitted from Fairly lining up next to him or the other way around. Third year DT Tyler Davidson has quietly become maybe the most consistent inside linemen. Second year DT David Onymata is a gifted athlete at 6'4" 300lbs but he is still raw. He was going to be a specialist this season. Now he's forced into a larger role. At perhaps the most important position on the defense, his development may determine the entire defense's improvement.

*Keep an eye on Justin Zimmer
.
1a.O-Line.

When healthy this OL is top 5 in the NFL. Anchored by C Max Unger. Bookended by Terron Armstead and Zach Strief. Together with former #1 draft choice Andreas Peat at LG and FA pick up, G Larry Warford, I'd put the OL against any in the league, However. Unger may not be ready for the season opener and Armstead is out until at least mid season. The Saints are now forced to move rookie Ryan Ramczyk in for Armstead and find a center to fill in until Unger returns. That sucks. 
*Keep an eye on Ramczyk, I'm hearing he's been the best thing about camp to date.

3. Defensvie End
Cam Jordan is established as an All Pro type defensive end. Who will be the guy on the other side? The list of candidates run deep. Edge rusher Alex Okafor looks the be the guy now but my guess is rookie 3rd round draft choice Trey Hendrickson, who's making noise, will eventually take over.

*Keep an eye on Mitch Loewen. Solid player keeps hanging around.

3. Defensive Backs

Jairus Byrd is out. Praise the lord. What's left is athletic, young and promising.  We just don't know if they can play. Strong safety Kenny Vacccaro is entering a contract year, he'll be fine. But will soph safety Vonn Bell step in or 2nd round pick Marcus Williams get the nod at the other safety spot? I hear Williams has been smart and athletic, he's getting alot of attention. I'm also hearing P.J. Williams and Ken Crawley are looking good at CB. Know who's name I'm not hearing? #1 draft pick Marshawn Lattimore. I'm concerned he hasn't taken over as starter yet. Don't believe the "experts" that hyped this guy during the draft that he'll be fine with some seasoning or perhaps he'd be a nickel  DB. No! That is not acceptable. A player rated as the #1 DB in the draft, taken with the 10th pick, should walk in and start from day one. Period. So far he's been unremarkable. Maybe he'll earn the top spot by the season opener. I'll wait and see. Remember, players of need at D-line were still on the board when Lattimore was selected.

*Keep an eye on UFA CB Arthur Maulet. Not big not fast but always around the ball.

4. Running Back.

Tim Hightower is out. Future first ballot HoF'er Adrian Peterson is in. It's said that carries will be split between Peterson and Mark Ingram. I'm not so sure about that. Let's face it, a healthy AP is far superior to Ingram. It's no contest. If he's health he'll be the guy. Rookie Alvin Kamara is very intriguing. He's already drawing high praise and lofty comparisons from HC Sean Payton. He's dynamic out of the backfield and will benefit from running against defenses battered by Ingram and AP. I look forward to his debut season.

*Keep an eye on Kamara. Some say he's the Bush/Sproles type. He's not. He's Pierre Thomas with more speed. I'll take that.

5. Head Coach.

This looks to to be a crossroads season for Sean Payton. Reports are he's been salty since camp began. He should be. Seems he realized the luxury of Greenbriar soften his boys up.  Maybe. Or maybe he's embarrassed about the last three seasons. Perhaps. Or maybe (just a hunch) he knows this will be his final season with the Saints. Before you call me crazy, read on. Not a single person will stomach another 7-9 season.  Not Drew Brees, not Tom Benson, Mickey Loomis, the fans or Payton himself. If that happens, he's out. Also, let's say the Saints make the playoffs from a very tough NFC South, his stock will once again skyrocket. I believe he'll parlay that into an opportunity elsewhere. He's been looking for a way out the door for the last two years. One way or another he may get his wish.

*Keep your eye on  8-8 or 9-7. That's the only thing that brings him back next season

My Saints Draft Grades

Here are my Saints draft grades

Marshon Lattimore  CB Ohio State. Full disclosure. I wanted an explosive offensive player here. I've stated my reasons why ad nauseam. To those of you who think I'm crazy, we just disagree. Having stated that, this could be an A+ pic if he can stay healthy. I have two reservations about Lattimore. 1. The dude is high maintenance. Because of his chronic hamstring injuries, he requires a special diet, training regime and practice routine. It's said he may require extra care from an NFL medical staff just to keep him healthy. Uhhh, that's before he even takes the field. BTW, when you see "chronic" in a diagnosis, That means it doesn't go away. Big. Red. Flag.  2. Scouts reported that he played exclusively right side CB at OSU. On the boundary. If true, this would indicate that coaches were trying to "hide" him. What I love about Lattimore, and why I think Saints coaches fell in love with him, is his elite play-making skills. He can catch the ball, he can break on the ball, he's fast enough to keep pace with any receiver or cover ground to get to the ball in flight. Again, he makes the catch. Too often Saints DBs have been unable to finish. Offenses had too many chances at redemption. The Saints D ain't got no time for that. Considering his elite ball skills, Lattimore can be a quality NFL starter. Maybe even a pro bowler. But his high maintenance and history of hammies, could make this another lost Saints #1 draft choice. "Scouting" services had him rated as high as the #4 prospect in the draft. Please. That's Deion Sanders territory. Ten teams don't pass on a talent like that. Lattimore is no Deion Sanders. But then again, who is. Big risk/reward. B-

Ryan Ramczyc OT. Wisconsin.  6'6" 310 former D3 player who transferred to Wisconsin and turned into an All Big Ten and All American player. He is an agile lineman with an attitude. I like that in a OL. LSU fans will remember how he dominated Arden Key, Lewis Neal and company in the season opener. As a tackle he checks all the boxes. Quick to the second level. Long arms for leverage. Exhibits great technique and toughness(Played through a hip injury). Athletic. Excels in both run and pass blocking. Interestingly, he played left tackle for the Badgers. Maybe the Saints have become exhausted by Terron Armstead's constant string of hangnail injuries. He's become unreliable. But, Ramczyc has an injury concern of his own. He had hip surgery January 5th. Probably why he fell to 32. Dominant LT's usually don't make it out of the top ten. He may not be ready for OTA's or slight chance, the season. The Saints said they would've loved an edge rusher at 32 but value wasn't there. To be clear, yes there were edge rushers available at 11 and 32. Just not good enough for the Saints, they say. We'll see how this plays out. Hip notwithstanding, once he's cleared to play, he'll be a legit NFL starting tackle. For a long long time. Added bonus, the Saints own his 5th year option. Now that's value. I know they needed that edge guy but. B+

Marcus Williams S Utah 6'1" 202 First team All-Conference in 2015 and academic all conference (4.0 GPA). A nice sized free safety with with speed and range. Finds the ball quickly and moves fluidly to trace it in flight. He is a legit centerfielder with good football instincts. But his best feature is that he is a play-maker. That's two defensive play-makers in the first three picks. Ya think the Saints saw that as a need? Will aide Lattimore with over the top coverage. The knock on Williams is his slender build which can be corrected in the weight room. He also tends to absorb hits instead of taking it to ball carriers. Lastly, and most critical, at times he followed QBs eyes and can be manipulated. QBs love playing safeties they can easily manipulate. This, too, can be corrected. Athletic, speed, range and playmaking skills. Correctable flaws. Good value in 2nd round. B+

Alvin Kamara RB Tennessee 5'11" 212. Kamara was in everybody's top five at RB. This team has not been the same since they let Darren Sproles get away. They haven't made the playoffs since. Three straight 7-9 seasons. The Saints need that element back in their offense. The two running backs in this draft closest to Sproles were Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. The Saints didn't get a chance to select McCaffrey so they made sure they got in position to select Kamara. This returns the X factor to the offense. This to me is a homerun pick. First round talent in the third round. Kamara has size, speed, quickness, agility. He's a major threat in the passing game. He has enough size to run between the tackles. He has good balance and vision. Looking at Kamara's tape, he's a Sproles/Pierre Thomas hybrid. He has the slippery running style of Thomas and the speedy quickness and pass catching ability of Sproles. On the negative side. Kamara came at a high price. Next year's #2. I don't mind the 7 because, well, Saints, draft. But the second round has been pretty good to the Saints(See Mike Thomas). Kamara also has a lighter resume than you may want. But 6.5 yards per carry. I'm in. Grade: A

Alex Anzalone LB UF 6'3" 240. For all the anti-LSU conspiracies, this one is the clincher. Would the Saints have taken Leonard Fournette if they had the chance? We'll never know. They say they would've taken Duke Riley in the third round but the Falcons got there first. Ok, you passed on him earlier in the third round but hey, benefit of the doubt, right? But selecting Anzalone with Kendall Beckwith sitting right there in your backyard ends all doubt. Anzalone's resume reads like a hospital chart. Broken arm. Separated shoulder. Dislocated shoulder. Every season lost to injury. And it's not like shoulder separations never return. They're like ankle sprains. One leads to another which leads to another. The ligaments surrounding the joint stretch and become more and more lax. They start separating during everyday movements like reaching for a glass, muchless straining for leverage, tackling and all other football moves. There's only two reasons I can think why they choose Anzalone: 1. He looks like Clay Matthews 2. He didn't play at LSU. It certainly can't be what they saw on the field. Maybe Beckwith's ACL injury could be why the Saints passed(that would be a first), but that didn't matter to Tampa Bay, who gladly snapped him up the very next pic. Knowing this crew, Saints war room probably broke out into laughter. "Silly Tampa Bay, choosing another LSU LB! Ha ha ha!" Yeah ok. Anzalone is athletic and was productive in limited playing time. C-

Trey Hendrickson DE FAU. 6'5" 265. This and Kamara are my two favorites picks. Hendrickson is projected by many to add depth to the Saints DL. I'm here to tell you, he could start. He is pure energy and intensity. He doesn't tackle ball carriers, he pulverizes them. Imagine Kenny Vaccaro's motor at 270lbs with a 4.65 40 time. I seem to remember something about that in physics. What was it? Oh yeah, mass x velocity plus intensity equals injured QB. Grade A

Al-Quadin Muhammad  DE/OLB The U 6'3" 250.You may know Muhammad by his alias,Suspension-And Dismissal. This is what his college career is known for. Is he any good? Who cares. He's probably won't make it through an entire season to find out. This pick smells like Tevon Rooks pick. Only one round higher. Rooks. You may remember, is the OT selected a few years back in round seven who barely survived  OTA's. What makes the Muhammad pick most frustrating is all the players still on the board from great programs and didn't get in trouble. How about Jeremy Clark 6'3" 220 CB from Michigan? Or  Bucky Hodges a 6'6" 260 TE with 4.57 speed from VaTech? Or if you wanted DL, you had Jeremy Ledbetter DE Arkansas and D.J. Jones DT from right up the street at Ole Miss. my point is sure round six is where you can take a chance, go out on a limb. But man, make sure that limb doesn't snap. Grade F-

So the Saints potentially helped their secondary, got a legit OT, replaced Darren Sproles and found a hidden gem at DE. On the other hand, they again ignored LSU and wasted their lone pick of the final four rounds. That's four of six on the good side. Potentally. Remember the immortal words of Jim Mora about potential?

Overall grade: B

My 2017 Saints Mock Draft

Here's my 2017 Saints mock.

Don't look for a QB in my mock. The Saints just signed Chase Daniels to return as backup to Drew Brees. With immediate help needed at other positions, I wouldn't waste a pick on a QB. Besides, the 2018 draft is loaded with them.

So here we go:

Round 1, pick #11. Christian McCaffery, RB, Stanford. 5'11" 202lbs. I know, I know, "the Saints need an edge rusher!  Eleven is too high for McCaffery. Yeah I don't care. All I know is this guy, in this offense, would be nuclear. Fast. Elusive(48 forced missed tackles in '16), Explosive. Athletic. Great vision. Maintains speed off cuts. Excellent hands. Can take over a game. Great PR/KR.  The match-up(or mismatch) opportunities are too much for Sean Payton to resist. And he won't be there at 32.

Why no edge rusher? Meh. You can run away from, double-team or chip a good pass rusher. Also this draft has depth at DE/OLB.

But, to me, the big issue is this. In six of their nine losses in '16, the Saints lost by an average score of 21-16. However the offense averaged 29.3/game overall, 2nd in the NFL. Had they scored their average in just three of those losses, they're 10-6. They only needed 17 points to beat the Giants and Buc but sputtered. That means the O underachieved dramatically in those losses. Yet they were only one big play away from stealing a couple. I think McCaffey makes those big plays.

Round 1, pick #32 Charles Harris, DE Missouri 6'3" 255lbs Built of granite and possesses tremendous speed off the edge and a wicked spin move. Great motor. Can drop into coverage if needed.  Needs improvement against the run but right now the Saints need a pass rusher.

Round 2, pick #42.  T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin 6'4" 252lbs. Long, strong and edge acceleration. Excellent football instincts. Works fast as a blitzer, sheds blocks and takes good angles. Good, physical tackler. 15.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks in '16. Scott Fujita type. Always in the right place and makes that play you didn't think he could make.

Round 3 pick #76. Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado  6'3" 200lbs. A good cover corner with size. With the likes of Julio Jones, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans in the NFC South, the Saints need a tall CB. Witherspoon has the ability to high point the ball and tighten that tall WR catch radius.

Round 3, pick #103 Trey Hendrickson, DE, Florida Atlantic 6'4" 265. One of the best small school prospects in the draft. Big and fast, 4.65 forty time. Can get the jump on OTs with his first step and put pressure on the QB opposite Cam Jordan. He and Harris can compete for that spot It'll push both to be better which could provide the Saints with good cheap labor for the next four years at an essential position.

Round 6, pick #196 Bug Howard, WR, North Carolina 6'4" 220lbs 4.6 Big receiver with sure hands. Just four drops in four years of college ball. Hell, that's a half for Brandon Coleman. That alone makes it worth the pick. He's also willing to go over the middle and presents a big target for Brees.

Round 7, pick #229 Jeremy Clark, CB, Michigan 6'3" 220lbs Coming off ACL injury his senior season. Another big DB to compete in a division stocked with big WRs. Nice combination of size and speed. He will be hotly pursued as an undrafted free agent so why not pick pull the trigger here. Tremendous upside and value at this spot.

Those are my picks and I'm sticking with them. The draft is just a month away. Then mini-camp. OTAs. Before you know it training camp.


Bring it on!