My One and Only 2014 Saints Mock Draft

Here it is, the night before the 2014 NFL Draft. The Saints and the rest of the league have done all they could to find the players they feel will get them closer to a Super Bowl. If you're like me, a draft nerd, your head is swimming from the doses of speculation provided by the Kipers, McShays, and Mayocks of the world providing us with their mock drafts, prospect lists, and scouting reports.

Well I'm going to do a little speculating of my own. My first(and only) Saints 2014 mock draft:

Round 1. Pick #27: Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG  UCLA. 6'4" 307.  Su'a-Filo is the #27 prospect on many draft boards, the Saints need help on the interior OL. Saints fans screamed and prayed for Drew Brees' life as he was battered more times than ever as a Saint in 2013.  Help is on the way as more bulk needed in the middle of an aging Saints offensive line. Need filled, best player available.

Round 2. Pick# 53: Donte Moncrief,  WR Ole Miss 6'2" 220 4.34. Big, strong, fast and great hands. I love this kid. Saints are getting old at that position and efforts to reload recently have been hit and miss.  Kenny Stills is a play maker while Nick Toon has been a flop.

Round 3. Pick #91: Pierre Desir, CB Lindenwood 6'1" 200 4.5. Saints are giddy that Desir is still there as they passed on Phillip Gaines in round 2. Tall corner with good ball skills makes up for lack of elite speed.

Round 4. Pick #126: Jarick McKinnon, RB Georgia Southern 5'9" 210 4.37. Saints pass on Lache Seastrunk for McKinnon's similar measurables to Darren Sproles and his ability to run between the tackles as well as use his speed to get to the edge. McKinnon can also be used in the passing game much like Sproles with Sean Payton creating matchup nightmares for opposing defenses.

Round 5. Pick #167: Wesley Johnson, OT/C Vanderbilt 6'5" 300. The Saints find their center of the future with the athletic Johnson. A four year starter, he played left tackle for the Commodores, yet projects as a center in the NFL. He was considered the conference's most versatile O-lineman, earning him 2nd team all SEC honors. Johnson was flagged for only 2 holding penalties in four years and allowed just 7.5 sacks in 1281 pass plays. The book says centers must posses intelligence and quick learning ability.  Johnson scored a 36 on his ACT and earned a 3.54 GPA at Vandy. He will be the steal of the draft.

Round 5. Pick #169: Larry Webster, TE, Bloomsburg. 6'5" 250 4.58. The four year starter on the Bloomsburg basketball team set the school record for blocked shots. Webster played one season at DE but many NFL scouts feel he projects as a TE. He's tall with a frame that can build more muscle, long arms and quick in and out of cuts with flexible ankles. Sound familiar? Admittedly, this is a slight reach and Webster will need time to develop. However, he is on a number of teams' radar, so he will be drafted. Why not here? Imagine the possibilities of having two Jimmy Grahams!

Round 6. Pick #202: Jonathon Dowling, FS, Western Kentucky 6'3" 190 4.5. I know, I know, another safety! This pick is purely best player available, With Dowling's range and ball skills, the safety loving Rob Ryan will have another toy in his arsenal. Also with the Kenny Vacarro coming off a broken ankle, this will supply some insurance and depth.

These are my picks and I'm sticking to them, Good luck and enjoy the draft, Saints fans!

Saints Making Their Move

It was this time last year I blogged that the Saints made a mistake hiring defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Essentially my point was that his scheme took more time to master than the Saints had to master it. What the Saints needed was a turn-around specialist.


Well either Sean Payton, while exiled to Dallas, read my blog or he saw the same thing I did. Upon his return to the Crescent City he fired Spags before ordering his first po'boy. Payton inserted Rob Ryan, who himself had been fired from the Dallas Cowboys weeks earlier.


Here we are, ten games in and Ryan's voodoo has revived a defense so beat up, battered and bruised physically and psychologically, they were left for dead. Then hit Ms Mae's to celebrate the resurrection.


The numbers don't lie. From historically bad results under Spagnuolo in 2012, Ryan's defense of 2013 rank 4th in average yards per game, 3rd in passing yards per game and most importantly from 32nd to 17th in rushing yards per game. And they are getting better.


It's been widely stated that, given the Saints high powered offense, all that was needed was a middle of the road defense to return to the playoffs. However, based on recent performances, this defense is on the verge of becoming, dare I say, dominant?!?!


Yes. Dominant. Ask Dallas and San Francisco. Each held to less than 100 yards rushing and 200 yards passing in respectively.

Now come those hated 2-8 dirty birds. If this were any other 2-8 team I'd be concerned of a let down. But, this is Atlanta. There will be no let down. The Falcons have called it a season. Hit by mass attrition by key personnel via retirement, free agency and injury, Atlanta's window seems to have been slammed shut. Plus, with their defense ranked 26th in the league, chalk up win number 9 for the good guys.


As for head coach Sean Payton? He must be in heaven. His choice for DC is not only turning his defense around, but he is right out of central casting for New Orleans itself.  No coach has engrained himself into the fabric of the city as quickly as Ryan. Is there any place more New Orleans to celebrate a victory than Ms Mae's?  He had NOLA at hello after that one.

After shaking off some early season rust, Payton is back to form. He has the offense ranked 2nd in total yards per game.  In September, I said let's wait for the maligned offensive line to gel, well based on the last two games, they have and the running game is on the verge of exploding. Note to NFL defenses, don't let the Saints running game get going.

Put this together and it gives me that feeling of '09 and '11. That feeling that right now, no team in the NFL is better than the Saints.

The Saints are making their move.

Another Miles Classic

Ok. I'll admit it. I'm spoiled.

Since the year 2000, when Nick Saban began the revitalization of the LSU football program, I have become accustomed to a certain football lifestyle. A winning lifestyle.

Not just winning, but WINNING!!

Four SEC and two BCS championships and numerous top ten finishes will do that to you.

So when debacles such as the Ole Miss game occur, it shakes one to his football core.

Coming off an impressive win against an SEC talent rich team, gaining momentum and everything still in play for LSU, they go to Oxford to play a team on the mend. After spanking the Big 12's Texas, who's coach is on a standing eight count, Ole Miss has suffered three consecutive SEC defeats. Missing five defensive starters including three on the d-line plus their homerun hitting runningback, Ole Miss was down to their last out. The only thing head coach Hugh Freez had going for him was the fact that one of their most hated rival was coming to town. So motivation would not be an issue. LSU has long forgotten that this was once an intense rivalry between two border states with rich football traditions. Over the years, as Ole Miss began to flaunder, this game lost it's importance to LSU.

Not to Ole Miss.

Banking that a Les Miles' LSU would read about all those Ole Miss starters missing and will do what they always do, play down to their opponent and coupled with the natural letdown from the Florida win, Freez new Miles' boys were thinking, "Ole Miss, Furman then a bye, three weeks to prep for Bama".

In a great example of scouting a team, Freez new the usually reliable LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis was going nuts trying to get a handle on his own unit and the book on offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was that he just can't stop himself from throwing the long ball.  Freez's staff came up with a gameplan of patience on defense and creating confusion on offense.

Just like the turkey that walks right toward the caller, Miles and his staff walk right into Freez's trap.

After a couple of three and outs and getting a feel for what Chavis was doing, Freez's offense went to work. Compiling over 500 total yards, converting an agonizing 11 of 18 third downs, all seemed to be 3rd and long, Ole Miss wore down the unit which, unlike their counterparts, started the game with all hands on deck. But the unkindest cut of all was that someone named Jalen Walton, a little used 5'8" 168lb RB, who, I'm certain, no one associated with the LSU football program ever heard of, gashed Chavis' once proud defense for 106 yards rushing and an astounding 5.6 avg per carry.

Freez's plan for LSU's high powered offense worked even better. With a unit as undermanned as King Leonidas against the Persians, Freez used Cameron's impatience against him.  In a game very revealing as to why he was canned in Baltimore, Cameron couldn't resist going for kill shots on three first half occasions when body blows were all that was needed. Freez's defense was ready. He had his safety in position and waiting for the opportunity Cameron would present him. The result was three influential interceptions. Score changing, momentum swinging and inspiration providing pics that sucked more life out of LSU and injected more into Ole Miss with each one.

Watching the game, one had the sense that by the 4th quarter, as Ole Miss' valiant defensive effort would wear down, LSU would pull away. The Ole Miss defense did wear down, but by then, the damage of mishandling the first half was done. For someone who demands discipline from his quarterback, Cameron displayed very little.

Freez doesn't deserve all the credit, however.

Les Miles' mind blowing knack for giving lessor talented teams hope continues to amaze. His gametime decisions and clock management gaffes baffle even his most loyal apologists. And his incoherent explanations embolden his detractors. He preaches respecting every opponent by giving your best effort yet rarely displays it on gameday.

Some would suggest the players must shoulder the responsibility for the Ole Miss loss. To that I would respond that in college football, you play as you are coached.

Into his ninth season, we all have a true reading of how Miles' teams are coached.

LSU '13 Lacks Defensive Playmakers

Baton Rouge, we have a problem.
LSU '13 is in crisis.
There's not much time.
Grab some spare parts, make a defense.
Get them home.
Failure is not an option.

As LSU scrambles to come up with answers for their dismal defensive performance against Georgia, the cold truth is there may not be any, given the mass exodus of defensive starters form last year. Typically a John Chavis defense has players waiting in the wings for their turns to shine. Not this year. Since the second half of game two, Chavis' group has shown little signs of growth.

At first played off as youthful lack of focus after building a big lead, it's now feared the loss of starters is a bigger burden than once appeared. That youthful lack of focus has turned into mass confusion as the level of competition rises.

The consensus is that the lack of experience has been the major factor in the decline of the defense. That a lineup stacked with underclassman with little prior playing time is to much to overcome.

In the words of the great Lee Corso, "not so fast, my friend".

While it's true LSU has a number of new starters, it's really not much more than the usual attrition in todays college football landscape. Consider LSU. Since 2010 attrition has hit the defense hard. Five starters left after 2010, six after 2011. Of those five in '10 were Patrick Peterson, Drake Nevis and Kelvin Shepard. Among the losses in '11 were Michael Brockers and Brandon Taylor.

Each time attrition hit Chavis, the defense came back stronger. The 2011 defense replaced 2010 loaded with playmaking sophomores lead by a honey badger and a junior named Claiborne. It will go down as one of the finest defensive units in LSU history.

Which leads us to the 2012 defections. Mingo, Montgomery, Minter, Reid and Simon. Big losses no doubt, but replaced by players with ample enough playing time for a smooth transition. Remember, Eric Reid, Kevin Minter, Tharold Simon and Kiki Mingo all played sparingly in 2010. In their first season of fulltime play in 2011 two(Reid and Mingo)were all Americans and Minter was all SEC.

The 2013 LSU defense consist of five juniors, three seniors and three sophomores. It ain't all a lack of experience it's a lack of playmakers that has this unit clinging to it's football life. It's also a lack of depth, awareness and too many underperforming four and five star recruits. But the biggest thing is the lack of playmakers.

Playmakers change games and create momentum. They force fumbles, intercept passes and sack the quarterback. But most of all they create fear in their opponents. Coaches, quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs must dedicate some part of their focus on protecting the ball. It's called getting in their head. When a defense can do this the battle is won before the play begins. It's been a long time since I've seen an LSU defense lacking playmakers. With the talent they recruit, this should not be.

Meanwhile, at mission control, commander Les Miles must continues to search for a balanced football team. At long last his offense is playing lights out. Now he must count on the reliable defensive leader to get his boys home

Captain Chavis, can you hear me...
Captain Chavis??
Captain???

O-Line Needs Time

If you are in that number of growing of Saints fans and prognosticators worried about the Saints offensive line, spare yourself the reflux, put the purple pill away and stop.

No, I’m not here to tell you the 2013 version of the Saints offensive line is not without its problems. I am here to tell you, though, we’ve been here before.

The same worries were present in the early part of the 2011 season.  “Brees is getting hit too much.” “The O-line is weak up the middle.” “The left tackle position needs help to keep Brees clean.” “Where’s our running game!” “We got STUFFED on 4^th and goal!”

Then after losing 2 of three games at the midway point of 2011, the Saints found themselves a shakey 5-3, and the O-line was just dominated by the Rams defensive line, losing 31-21 to a team that would go one to win only 2 games.

What happened next? The Saints finished with an 8-0 run to a 13-3 record. Wins included a sweep of Atlanta, a 49-24 thumping of eventual Super Bowl champion NY Giants and an outdoor road December win in the cold, the wet and the mud. A Saint was the leading rusher of the game in six of those final eight wins.  Something they could only do twice in the first eight games.

Did the Saints make a trade?

No.

 Cut someone?

 No.

Bench somebody.

No.

Saints coach Sean Payton and his staff figured it out. With the same personnel, the Saints made the proper adjustments and started railroading teams, scoring 40+ points in 4 of the final six wins. While scoring 49, 42 and 45 points against the Giants, Vikings and Panthers, the Saints’ Mark Ingram led all rushers with 80 yards, Chris Ivory with 74 yards, and Ivory again with 127 yards respectively. This after being stopped cold on not one, not two, but three 4^th and inches in season opener at Green Bay.

Again, I’m not saying the 2013 offensive line is without trouble.  Brees IS getting hit too much. The holes for the running backs ARE scarce. There HAVE been too many holding penalties.  Too many redzone opportunities ARE producing three points or less. We got STUFFED on 4^th and goal!

All this and the Saints are 3-0.

Offensive lines need time to gel. There’s a new starter at left tackle, a new blocking tight end and an injury to the cornerstone of the line, Jhari Evans.  Brees has a couple of new receivers he’s getting use to as well.  Causing him to hold the ball longer.

All this and the Saints are outgaining their opponents 404 to 295 yards per game. Outscoring them 23-12 per game. They are converting nearly 50% third downs. Brees is hitting 68% of his passes. In fact, the Saints lead their opponent in all but one offensive category.

The line must be doing something right.

Now, the schedule does get tougher.  Defenses will get stouter.

But my bet is on Sean Payton. He will get the O-Line to gel. And judging by the stats now, God help the NFL when they do.

Are Saints Fans Jaded?

Are Saints fans jaded?

Moments after the Saints thrilling victory over the Tampa Bay Bucs, Facebook and Twitter blew up with Saints fans DISAPPOINTED in how the Saints won the game, feeling bad about winning ugly. Yes there was the obligatory “WE DAT!”s and “Geaux Saints” posts from the soccer mom diehards, but the “boy we got away with one” or “we didn’t deserve that one” comments outnumbered them.

Monday call in shows were worse, the general mood of callers was of a Saints defeat. Some talk show hosts expressed their “concern” that yes, while the Saints did win the game, their poor play left much to be desired.

Balderdash!

Let me get this straight. The Saints went into hostile territory to play a division rival. A rival who a week earlier snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. A rival who, in only week 2, had to call a “players only” meeting feeling their backs, already, were against the wall. A rival so determined not to go 0-2, discipline and sportsmanship was tossed aside.  

And win?!

And we wonder why coaches get testy.

Sure, Drew Brees made a couple of poor decisions. OK, the OL had its problems.  And yes, Sean Payton is obsessed with making a player out of Mark Ingram.  But the Saints didn’t deserve to win?

Let’s take a trip down Saints memory lane. 

In 1990, week one of the NFL season, the Saints played the back to back Super Bowl champion San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. The Saints were on the cusp of victory. The incomparable Joe Montana was sacked six times.  Perennial all-pro RB Roger Craig was held to 23 yards on 12 carries. The greatest NFL player of all time (as elected by an NFL Network poll) Jerry Rice had a grand total of one catch for 6 yards.  The Saints took a late 12-10 lead on a Morten Anderson 32 yard FG. Know what happened next?  That beaten down 49er offense of Montana and Rice connected on a 3^rd down 20 yard heartbreaker that turned a would be desperation 58 yard FG prayer into a 38 yard chip shot game winner. They made the necessary plays at the right time to win the game.

The 49ers finished that season 14-2, the Saints were 8-8. Do you think the 49ers cared they squeaked by a highly motivated inferior opponent, early in the season at their ballpark?

By all rights, the 49ers had no business winning that game.

By all rights, the Saints had every business winning the Bucs game.

The Saints outgained Tampa in total yardage 371-273, held QB Josh Freeman to 9/22 passing for 113 yards and a pic, a sack fumble and held the Bucs scoreless defensively. But for those poor decisions by Brees and a Tampa goal line stand, this was a Saints blowout.

Had the Saints lost this game, it would’ve been a giveaway.

The Saints inglorious past is littered with heartbreaking defeat after heartbreaking defeat.  Wins that were seemingly in the bag, teams beaten, tantalizing, only to be ripped away by a Hail Mary, a punt return or hyper-conservative coaching.

So come on, Saints fans, don’t be jaded. I, for one loved that ugly victory over Tampa. I’d take 17 more just like it.

 

 

Quick Results for Kindred Spirits

Well that didn’t take long.  Sean Payton’s return to the sideline produced, for the most part, the same result it has produced during the first six years of his tenure as Saints head coach.  That is an offense with a sharpshooting QB producing a ton of yards and points. 

After a sluggish first quarter, as Payton was finding his sea legs, the Saints had their way with the Falcons defense, outscoring them 23-7.  Payton also showed growth as a play caller. In the past, when the running game looked like it wasn’t working, Payton would abandon it and turn the game over to Drew Brees. Not yesterday. Payton was so determined to stick with the run; it may have prevented the Saints form scoring two touchdowns from first and goal. Instead, they had to settle for field goals. On each possession, Payton called first and goal running plays to Mark Ingram. Both plays proved unsuccessful as Ingram once again displayed a lack of NFL speed to the edge and power in close quarters. Payton stuck with the run to the tune of 29 carries. Although only 78 yards were gained for a 2.7 yard average, Payton accomplished his goal of softening up the Falcons pass rush and making their linebackers respect the running game enough to be susceptible to play action.

There were some hiccups, though, but correctable. First, Payton is making loyalty to a running back a new art form. Clearly Mark Ingram is not an NFL running back, at least not in Payton’s system.  Ingram is known as a bruising back requiring multiple carries to wear down a defense. But with Payton, a running back gets small doses of carries. Unless those carries produce, 4 yards or better, Payton is on to something and/or someone else. I will, however, defend Ingram in this respect, when he enters the game, every defensive player’s antennae goes up.  I don’t have the percentages but it seems the Saints are much more likely to run when Ingram is in the game.  Also the Saints lack that physical offensive line Ingram needs to keep initial defenders off of him.  Yet Payton keeps going to him time and time again.

No bigger was this point made than one fourth and inches. Payton rolled the dice. He installed Ingram into the lineup.  Every Falcon’s player, coach, and fan in the stands new Ingram was getting the ball. The result was a two yard loss and possession turned over to the Falcons.  Ingram was given eight more carries in the game gaining a grand total of 11 yards. His longest run was seven yards which means he gained only four yards on the other attempts combined. Now I’m not great in math, but that average can’t be good. Payton has become patient, but not that patient!

Second, the Saints must score touchdowns in first and goal opportunities. This game would not have been close had they accomplished this. Having to settle for field goals in those situations constitutes a win for the opponent’s defense and is deflating to your team. Even if the Saints converted just one of those chances the last Falcons’ drive would have taken on a different tone.

Maybe I’m just second guessing, but burning your second timeout on fourth and one from their three yard line with about three minutes to go is a waste. By Payton decided to try the old “draw them offside” routine anyway, he loses a timeout he may need later. In fact, I’m all for going for it in that spot.  Hey, you score a touchdown, convert a first down or pin Atlanta down inside their five yard line. It’s a win win win. Instead, you burn perhaps a much needed timeout, still up by only one possession, give up 18 yards field position and most importantly, now Atlanta’s to drive is for a touchdown to beat you instead of a field goal to tie and send into overtime.  I know it a philosophical decision, but I’d rather a team laying up with a wedge for a field goal to tie than pulling that 3 wood out and going for the win.

It didn’t take long for Rob Ryan’s new look defense to produce. Saints fans haven’t seen that type pressure since former defensive coordinator Greg Williams was paying coin for it.  Again, after the first quarter, once Ryan got a beat on what the Falcons were trying to do, he slammed the door shut. As for getting a heavy dose of Stephen Jackson punishing the Saints defense into submission, as predicted, Ryan had his men ready. Outside Jackson’s 50 yard run, he was a non-factor. On ten other carries he gained only 27 yards and dropped the potential game winning touchdown.  Matt Ryan was forced to attempt 38 passes. He was sacked three times and harassed the entire day.  One report stated he was hit total of 23 times. Talk about remember me shots!

All in all it was a nice return for Sean Payton and debut for Rob Ryan. From Payton and New Orleans icon Steve Gleason dropping the who dat chant to Roman Harper’s interception on the game’s final meaningful play, these two kindred spirits, both on a mission to right the wrongs they were dealt, accomplished step one. Here’s hoping the ride has only just begun.