"A can't miss prospect." "Amazing physically," "Can make plays with his arm and legs." "When he has time, there isn't a defense he can't pick apart." "Nearly 40 TDs and 70% completion his final tear in college"...a lock, right?
On Thursday, April 26, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will approach the podium at New York's Radio City Music Hall and say the following. "With the first pick in the 2012 NFL draft, the Indianapolis Colts select Andrew Luck. Quarterback. Stanford.
Just like that, The Andrew Luck era will begin. Colts owner Jimmy Irsay greased the skids for this on March 7. Irsay is bankng that Peyton Mannings's surgically repaired neck has finished one of the greatest careers in NFL history. Irsay is also banking that Luck's arm will do for the Colts what Steve Young did for the 49ers. The last time an NFL legend was shown the door to make way for the next young gun.
Well good luck with that, Irsay! You two are now joined at the hip. Good or bad. Success or failure. It will be owned by both.
Luck isn't just following a good QB. He is following an insitution. Someone who is as revered by his fanbase as any player in the history of team sports. At least Manning had three decades, a relocation and the Art Schlichters and Jeff George's of the world between he and Unitas.
Irsay doesn't seemed concerned. NFL scouts, pundents, commentators and talking heads are singing the praises of Luck with accolades such as the ones at the beginning of this blog.
There's no doubt Luck had an outstanding career at Stanford. His final season was as good as it gets. However, Luck's skin and hide better be tough, cause the Colts are rebuildng and today's NFL fans are in no mood for rebuilding. Every incompletion, interception, sack, fumble, false start and holding penatly will be blamed on Luck and Irsay. By the end of the year, midwestern blizzards may be met with, "that never happened when Peyton was here". Luck will learn fast that there are no San Jose States on an NFL schedule. What he did in college means nothing. There is no such thing as a lock in the NFL. Those quotes above? They were about Jamarcus Russell when he was entering the draft.
Making matters worse for Irsay and Luck is that Manning will be doing that vintage line of scrimmage choreography for another team, poised to make a Super Bowl run. Every completion, first down, touchdown and victory will be negatively projected onto Luck and Irsay by Colts fans. Peyton will be everywhere in their world. In team meetings, board meetings, at training camp, at every road stadium and in their dreams. If they can sleep by then.
On the other hand if Luck succeeds, Irsay will be a genius with impeccable timing and Manning a wounded has been. But history is not on their side. Since 1998 QBs taken with the first pick and not named Manning have won zero Super Bowls. Two, Tim Couch and Russell, are out of the league, and David Carr flopped in Houston and is now a back up with the Giants. All had glowing scouting reports touting them as can't miss locks. None were replacing legends.
Good Luck with that, Irsay.
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